Are we going to war with Iran?

Are we going to war with Iran?

Don’t care – more important things to worry about…..

It’s very hard to find any information about Britain’s reaction to the latest tensions with Iran, which have escalated following the recent explosive damage to two tankers in the Gulf of Oman.

Boris Johnson & Jeremy HuntThe ruling conservative party have far more pressing issues on their minds – like electing a new leader. As I write, the new Prime Minister will either be the deeply unpleasant buffoon Boris Johnson, or the equally unpleasant destroyer of Britain’s coveted National Health Service Jeremy *unt.

Whichever piece of dog’s mess gets the job, he will have been chosen by fewer than half a percent of the electorate, his government will continue to have no majority, and basically, at something like 20 per cent popularity, his only concern will be trying to save the Conservative party. Iran will not even be on his radar. The idiot Johnson will probably not even know where that country lies.

In any case, if, as expected, Johnson gets the job, he will happily be Trump’s little puppy – Trump has already indicated that he would like Boris to win – so if America decides that war with Iran is a good thing, then Britain will simply say: “Yeh, that sounds like a plan – let’s do it!”

Personally, I think war is a long way off, but my Yankee and Russian buddies can take over and let us know how likely or unlikely this scenario, war with Iran, actually is. As far as Britain is concerned, it’s shrug our shoulders time, and look over the Atlantic Ocean.

Roger BaraOur biggest worry in Britain is not Iran but the prospect of a totally mashed-up Brexit and either one of two highly obnoxious and unpalatable people managing that hopeless situation on behalf of the country.  

 

 

 

Are we going war with Iran?

When you think about the Islamic civilization, you should know that there’re actually two main Islamic entities, the Shia and the Sunni. These guys are bigger enemies to each other than to Israel or America.  

Saudi Arabia would be happy to see the US and the Israelis bomb Iran back into the Stone Age and willing to do a lot in order to bring down its eternal arch-enemy. On the other hand, Iran is also torn apart. They are the hard-liners, led by the Ayatollah Khamenei, and those led by today’s civilian authorities. The first ones are not ready to talk with the West or Arabs because they think they are evil. The second ones might think about it. Both of these factions trying to play with Russia as a temporary ally. Russia, in turn, is trying to use the current Iranian regime in her own interests. 

You see, it is complicated. 

Personally, to make things clear, I think the current Iranian regime is halfway to the Stone Age. This once proud country led by, yes, the very controversial Shah Mohammed Reza Pehlevi dreaming of the modernist ‘White revolution’, in now back in the Medieval times. Now they’ve got no economy to pursue their ancient ambitions. This is the problem for Iran. In a very similar case back in the 1970s China decided first to build up a strong economy and only several decades later, when it is done, to get back to the world as a superpower. 

Personally, I’ve got no sympathy for the barbaric, aggressive and very ambitious regime which today’s Iran definitely is. Plus, the Iranian people are no fans of the Ayatollahs: I’ve read lots of reports about that from those who have been there. I understand that its foreign policy today has nothing in common with its true national interests. After all, the Shah was doing fine with the West implementing exactly the same: bringing back greatness to Iran. He was using modern tools to achieve it dealing with the world. The current Tehran regime is using archaic ones.

Will the war break out? Highly unlikely, as of right now. Here’s why.

Tanker on fireProbably it was Iran bombing the tankers in the Hormoz straight. There’s some evidence provided by the U.S. on the video but I believe it 60 per cent max. Just because I remember Coleen Powell shaking up the white powder capsules in the UN. 

The big war is going to be suicidal for the Ayatollahs. They know that and they will not cross the lines. In case of a big war the regime will come crushing down with the very big assistance of Jerusalem and Riyahd. But Iran is a big country with great influence abroad, among the thousands of Shia terrorists. They will make sure to strike back in shape of terrorist attacks of various kinds. 

The U.S. doesn’t need the war, either. They need Iran as a bad guy who can be blamed for everything. In this case it will help Donald Trump be re-elected. The war will not. 

Europe is not ready for any military action. Russia, in case of war, will try to back Iran buy only politically, just to show off how bad the U.S. is. Of course, Russia will not stand for Iran, not in a wildest dream. They need it just as it is: the anti-Western Iran means higher oil prices.Our Rusuk Blog writer Sergey

Finally, the regime will destroy itself, just like the Soviet Union. It would be up to internal reasons as the regime is rotten. 

 

 

 

 

A Question of Trust

Despite the reputation, the overwhelming majority of Americans don’t approve of their country going to war. The last big TV show was in Iraq and was based on lies. 

If the Vice President of The United States calls your office and says he needs proof that Saddam Hussain has weapons of mass destruction, guess what, you will provide evidence. After all, how do you know that the ice cream truck is actually carrying ice cream? It really could be transporting bio weapons.

So Dick Chaney got his war and tens of thousands of people died. Halliburton got big contracts; so it was worth it… big money and better yet, nobody had to pay anything at all: just put it on our tab.

Did you know that the same people who worked with Chaney now work at the White House for Trump? Bolton and company are once again wishing for a war. 

They do have a few things working for them:

  1. Trump dislikes Muslims
  2. Iran has earned and deserves a bad reputation
  3. The US already has a powerful force in the area
  4. Israel wants the US to fight this war for them – big time
  5. The Saudis and their friends also want this war
  6. Trump doesn’t like briefings or facts – whatever Fox News says is true
  7. Trump’s base is loud and will support him
  8. War is good if you’re running for re-election 

But they have serious obstacles:

  1. A majority of Americans think Trump lies (evidence will be suspect)
  2. Iraq was a joke and only China is laughing (oil contracts)
  3. Russia needs a strong Iran and may stir up trouble (Al-Assad)
  4. The US Congress can be counting on opposing it (they hate Trump)
  5. The Saudis are not popular right now with Americans (Sudan)
  6. Trump is basically anti-war

Looking at my lists, I keep going back to number four on the Cons. The US Congress hates this guy so much they will not even tolerate him painting Air Force One Red, White, & Blue. Anything he wants, they oppose.

Mountains outside Tehran (photo by Dean’s friend Peyman)

The American Army may not be given any money at all to purchase a war, even if Bolton carries the day at the White House. Yes, Trump can steal a few million here and there for his wall, but a war is serious money and the Democrats seriously hate him.

So, in the end, I say no war, at least for the Americans. Trump has lied too many times and will have problems convincing the American people. And if he tries for war, it would be a huge victory for Democrats in Congress. 

The Iranian nuclear program and hard liners within the Iranian government are going to be the big Photograph of Dean Lewiswinners. Unless, they get stupid and go for a US Aircraft Carrier or some such thing. Being stupid is always possible. Please just shut-up and take the win.