I know what our American co-writer thinks on this subject because we tend to discuss this quite often – so I reckon what I am writing will be the polar opposite. We’ll see.
I am happy to predict that President Donald Trump will easily win a second term based on the following criteria: the buffoon will need something approaching the same job approval rating as it is at the moment; the American economy will need to be in a similar position in the next 12 months a year from now, and the turnout of voters would need to be around the 2016 figures.
I don’t care what the twat-face’s approval is right now – apparently it’s been consistently lower than any post-war president – it’s only important whether it’s rising or falling when America goes to the polls.
The base support for Chump hasn’t gone anywhere. I just know if he rapes, pillages, lies, breaks the law, or just commits a common old murder, his supporters will continue to give him their approval. It’s who they are.
The unfolding impeachment going on as I write? I agree with some of those who watch Capitol Hill with a critical eye – their assessment is that what has so far been divulged has not, and in all liklihood will not, move a single vote in the House of Representatives.
It happened, against the odds, in 2016. I think the odds for another four years in office for this disgrace of a human being are much more in his favour. Oh bliss. What a wonderful 2020 to which we can all look forward.
Please, good folk of America, prove me completely wrong, I dare you.
A couple of years ago some fancy school of something did a study and they found that when a person becomes invested in an idea and you show that person facts contrary to his beliefs, he will often cling more tightly to his notions. In other words, simply proving that The Donald is not here to drain the swamp will change nobodies mind. Indeed, supporters will become more vocal and defensive.
With this in mind, you may believe that Trump will get back in. “Everybody does it, so it’s no big deal.” That’s exactly what his lackeys in Congress are betting on and it seems to resonate with Trump’s core.
So, the Never Trumpers & the Trumpists are not going to change their minds about anything. Simply presenting them with more information will only make them cling ever tighter to their ideas. With this in mind it seems to me that the center will decide Trump’s fate in 2020.
You’ll notice that I haven’t mentioned Impeachment, or Porn Stars, or donations to Vets, or any of the other white noise that is a normal part of the Trump work week. That’s because it will make no difference at all. Trump himself says he can walk down the street and shoot someone and it would make no difference. I now agree with him.
It’s what the center of the electorate thinks that matters, and damn near nothing else. So the logical question is: what do folks in the center think?
Because there is soooo much drama, there seems to be very little attention paid to this small group. But I have seen a few stories and they do not bode well for the conservatives.
From what I can tell (notice the disclaimer), it seems that most of the undecideds are becoming fatigued with the reality show that is the Trump White House. Apparently it’s not the issues as much as it is the Twitter feed. The constant drumbeat of drama that never seems to take an afternoon off. With each new day, it’s more shit and it never ends and that may decide 2020.
Now the Democrats believe that it’s about the scandals and the lack of morals. If this were any other President – I mean ANY other President, I would agree but not this guy. He will never be impeached.
I will argue that this race is the Democrats to lose and they are doing their damndest to make that happen. Running twenty at a time isn’t enough, we will now have a few late arrivals throw money at the contest. Even Hillary is making noises about jumping in. Stupid.
If it comes down to someone from the far left (Warren) running against someone from the far right (Trump), it could go either way. No matter who wins, it will be more drama as the heart burns in a bonfire to celebrate the fringe. This is absolutely the worst thing that could happen to a great democracy: twenty percent imposing their will on the majority. And it’s a real possibility, again.
The things are getting hot: the Democratic party wants to impeach President Trump or, if it doesn’t go through in the Senate, to politically harm him to a degree that he loses the 2020 election.
Some say this is because Trump would defeat Joe Biden in November 2020. Some others also say that the impeachment thing is the last resort for the Democratic party if they ever want to oust Trump from the White House.
Let’s roll back several months, when the Bob Mueller’s investigation of the possible Trump-Russia connection was at full speed. You might like it or not, the investigation was bust. You can hardly suspect Mueller in any sympathy for Donald Trump. Still, he got zero results in the end. Who is to blame for that?
Those Dems who inspired it, including Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Nadler, seem to have no reputational damage.
This is very strange because, to me, they publicly lied (or, OK, knowingly misinformed) the American public about Trump.
Most of the media, too, got it wrong. I’m from the USSR/Russia and I know how propaganda looks and smells like. What is happening now in most of the US media is 100 per cent pure propaganda against Trump: various groundless assumptions, opinions instead of facts but presented like facts, fake news, etc.
What is happening now is just another round of this fight. I don’t usually believe in conspiracy theories, ‘world government’, etc. but it looks like the mysterious ‘deep state’ really exists. It is doing its best to sabotage and finally remove the legitimate President from the office, not in a constitutional way, but based on assumptions presented like facts, again.
What I don’t understand is WHY?
Is it because Trump wants to relocate at least some of the production lines back in the US and hurt those who control transnational corporations? Simply because they would earn less with higher US workers wages? Sounds like sci-fi… Or because he’s not a Woody Allen’s character, smart, nice and soft? But, instead, smart, straightforward and rude? Being a character from a completely different movie? Or he looks funny with his hair-cut? Or because he’s got an ego size of Texas? I don’t know: it is a mystery to me.
In the meantime, the facts speak for themselves: his tax reform stimulated the US economy and it is booming. He got the jobless rate down and job numbers up. Vladimir Putin, a tough guy himself, respects Donald Trump: I can judge it by the coverage of him and, what is even more important, of the US in general in the Kremlin-controlled Russian media. Back in Obama days it was something with a smell of superiority. It was no secret that Putin thought of Barack Obama as a lightweight, to say it politely.
Trump is a heavyweight in every possible way and strong men of the world, be it Putin or China’s Xi, feel it. So far the US is winning the trade war with China: it was Trump who stood up for the national, not transnational, interest.
He might be right or wrong on various issues but he does his best to deliver on his promises. I don’t remember anybody talking of Trump breaking up his electoral promises: he does what he says.
The American people feel it, too.
A Gallup poll conducted during the first two weeks of November indicated that ‘despite focus by national and international news media on the impeachment proceedings currently underway in the House of Representatives, President Trump’s job approval rating remains statistically similar to where it has been for weeks. Gallup’s latest poll, fielded Nov. 1-14, failed to show a noticeable impact of the impeachment hearings in Congress on presidential approval. In fact, the last time the president’s approval rating was 43% was in mid-September, just before news outlets began to report that a whistleblower complaint had been filed regarding a call between Trump and the president of Ukraine.’
So, yes, I think the Democratic party is afraid of the 2020 presidential election. It seems they want to try anything that would work to stop Trump from being re-elected in November 2020, even if it might look like a silent coup-de-etat.
OK, my prediction is:
Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020.
Why? Because the ‘deplorables’ or ‘forgotten men and women of America’ (depending on where you are politically) would get some reinforcements from the opposite camp.