Are we on the brink of a major war?

Are we on the brink of a major war?

From a British perspective, it’s quite possible. Our useless Prime Minister, Boris Twat-face, was on holiday when Trump decided to go out to play with his toys. Didn’t hear from Johnson for a while, so he can’t have thought it that important.

But what’s difficult to judge is how this will all play out in a region where there are so many conflicting alliances. Let me explain.

We can all agree that we (Britain) do not love the so-called Islamic State. But Saudi Arabia does love I.S., and we, indeed, really really love Saudi Arabia.  And we love Iraq because that country certainly does not love I.S.

On the contrary, we do not love Iran, yet they support Iraq over IS; Iraq, remember, does not love IS.

We are definitely not in love with Syria’s President Assad, and we are also in love with the fight against that particular knob-head; now then, I.S. is also against Assad, but we do not love I.S.

So that’s all clear then – we know which side our friends, who we love, are on, and we know which side our sworn enemies are on, even if sometimes, we all appear to be on the same side.

Now I’ve cleared all that up, I can assemble a point-of-view on how close we are to Armegeddon. Frankly, most reasonable folk always dreaded the day when Mr. Totally-Unstable couldn’t resist to peddle in brinkmanship, with his so called amateur advisors not able to even contemplate the potential backlash. And didn’t he just threaten to bomb sacred or cultural places in Iran? Guess who does that – yes, I.S. 

So we have an impeached president who gives the go-ahead for an assassination without approval from Congress, and tweets his rantings from a golf course. (Though I admit the world is probably a better place without the dead leader, although he will be replaced by an equally deadly foe.) And Britain has a leader who is too afraid of upsetting America, and chooses not to speak out.

What will happen next? I’m not sure either America or Iran want all-out war. I am sure that Iran will want to piss off their hated enemy anyway they can, and they probably will. In small doses.

Until Trump does something else stupid, that’s how it will stay. And you can bet that Britain will have no meaningful words to add to the debate.

Are we on the brink of a major war?  

Donald Trump has just started to talk with the Iranian mob the way the mob understands it. Kassem Soleimani was of the most dangerous men in the world comparable to Bin Laden. Right, he’s been fighting the ISIS but his real plans were to establish Iran as a leading power in the Middle East. 

To make my position clear: I strongly believe that it is absolutely ok for Israel to have nuclear weapons and in no way the current Iranian regime should have it. Yes, the good guys should have it and the bad guys shouldn’t. 

The Israelis do not blackmail others with it: their nuclear weapons is the way to stabilize the Middle East, a deterrent. On the contrary, Iran under the ayatollahs has become a terrorist state officially supporting Hizballah and Hamas. If Iran ever gets it the world becomes a much more dangerous place because this would mean that the Shi’a religious fanatics now have a tool to kill millions of people: the Sunni, the Israeli, the Christians. General Soleimani was behind the recent attack on the US embassy in Bagdad. He also set up numerous attacks on the oil tankers and other assets in the Gulf recently. Yes, he was an open enemy of the US and the West with blood of his hands. Lots of blood. He was a so-called ally of Russia in Syria but Iran is not Russia’s strategic ally and has never been. So tomorrow he would’ve been Russia’s enemy, too. Why not?

This is why I believe the U.S. drone strike was a good decision. It will not lead to a major war with Iran. It would prevent it.

Here’s why. 

First, countries such as Iran understand only the language of power. This is exactly what the US just done. The stakes getting higher and higher and, in this situation being strong serves as a deterrent to war: if you hit us, we’ll hit you ten times stronger. 

Iran seems to get this message. 

Trump’s tweet about the 52 targets was not a language of war but a language of peace: don’t mess around with us or we will destroy you. It is the only language that Iran understands. Being polite or being soft means being weak. This is the mistake made by the West in 1938 that lead to the defeat of France: Hitler’s Germany has become much stronger after that strategic mistake.  

One more time: after the killing Soleimani, Iran would believe that no more aggression would stand. The symbolism with the number of 52 (hostages / targets) works just fine when you talk to the people from the Middle East. They understand it and widely use various symbols and metaphors themselves. 

Don’t forget another  of Trump’s tweet about the Iranian regime being successful in negotiations and never being successful in wars. This is the invitation to talk and to avoid a major war. 

The killing of Soleimani serves two goals. First, showing Iran that there’ll be no funny stuff from now on: the West wouldn’t stand anymore attacks on its people or assets. Secondly, HMS ships have just recently re-started their mission in the Gulf and this is a sign of decisiveness and cooperation. 

The second goal comes out of the first: we say what we mean so you better stop your hybrid war or we will completely destroy you. Your regime would share the Soleimani’s fate in this case. 

This is why I predict hard talk but soft actions from Iran in the nearest future. No major war, of course. Iran would back down because it already went far beyond its capabilities. Without such a strong man as Soleimani was, it is now weaker, too. 

Are we on the brink of a major war?

Well hell… here we are, again. Donald Trump said or did something and now half the Planet is in full revolt and about one-third of Americans are cheering him on. We seem to do this about once every ninety days.

As you know, this time he killed some ass who deserved to die. I’ll not pretend outrage at the killing and don’t care about the bitch enough to be bothered looking up his correct name spelling for this article. 

However, the killing was done in typical Trumpian style: no consultation, no notice to friends & allies, and on what now looks like slim legal pretext. Not to mention the awful timing.

Numerous Americans, mostly liberal, are thrashing about yelling that this was done to distract from the Impeachment. Not a chance. Donald has nothing to worry about and he knows it. Moscow Mitch has made it clear that this will be a rigged vote. Sen Graham has gone one better: He can’t be bothered to even read the articles of Impeachment. There will be no honest review of the charges. This is different from saying you think the man is, or is not guilty; this is saying that you will make sure the entire thing is a joke.

No, this has nothing to do with Impeachment. I personally believe there are two possibilities:

1. The decision was made on his “gut”. Which is to say after about thirty seconds based on an intuitive feeling and no facts.
2. There really was a serious (political) review and it was decided that a good war was the best shot Trump has at winning the upcoming election.

What is clear is that there wasn’t the full, thoughtful, non-political review and gaming out of the moves and counter moves that will come from the killing. Allies were not consulted and the Congressional Leadership was not queried. This is not a political statement as both Conservatives and Liberal Administrations did think similar events through in the past.

My personal intuition is that this was mostly likely number one: There was some briefing and some poor army guy mentioned they knew where the ass would be in a couple of days and Trump decided to kill him and there would be no further discussion – period.

Now, as per normal, officials are running around trying to put out fires. Trump is on Twitter, unfiltered, making threats that he wants to commit War Crimes by bombing civilian cultural sites of no strategic value. And our former European Allies stand around in stunned silence while Trump’s base becomes ever more vocal in the righteous cause.

I don’t think The Donald wants a war, I don’t think he gave it any thought at all.