Joe Biden

What does the Ukrainian war mean for Putin?

Our Rusuk Blog writer Sergey

There’s a term in political science, black swan. This is some unexpected event that happens to a politician, effectively putting an end to his political career in a comparatively short period of time. 

For example, Donald Trump’s black swan was the COVID-19 and his poor handling of it. This is how he lost his presidency. 

In Vladimir Putin’s case, his personal black swan has just landed; this is the ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine. You know, they prohibit now the word ‘war’ to use publicly, when it comes to describing what’s going on there. 

For 20+ years Putin has been a Teflon president. He’s survived lots of troubles just to come out stronger than ever. But, I believe, now it’s time. 

Russian & Ukrainian Flags

I don’t even want to do ethical judgements here. It is beyond it, which exactly is the bad news for him. 

It’s like, it is worse than a crime, it is a mistake. He badly miscalculated, underestimating his enemy, Ukraine. Some non-existent state with some non-existent nation. Now he feels this existence; and the resistance; and the heat. 

Now it is time to pay the bills. The Russian army stumbled there and, even if they finally destroy and take Kiev, this won’t be the ultimate victory. Indeed, it will be the beginning of the second phase. Russia has no resources to control occupied territories. It has nobody to rely on within Ukraine politically; there’re no pro-Moscow politicians in sight. Even if some puppet is fixed, the people of Ukraine would just put him in the trash very fast. There’s no good exit strategy for Putin in Ukraine. 

The economic situation now in Russia is a nightmare; the sanctions will suffocate Russia’s economy, at least, as long as Putin stays in power. 

So far, the Goebbels-like propaganda machine inside the country is still working and most of the Russians support this ‘military operation’ and Putin. They keep banning social media, and adopting repressive legislation. This is the agony. As time goes by and the economy goes down, the picture will be changing even for those who only watch TV and pray for Putin. 

His only chance to stay in power is to launch mass repressions to frighten people to the bones. He has no military victory. He will have economic disaster very soon. 

The best thing he could do now for the country he claims he loves, is to resign. We know it is impossible for him now. 

For the moment, he will be slowly rotting in his bunker, just like the poor country that supports him. The moment he loses this support, which can’t be ruled out in historically short terms, will be his last day in power. Time is ticking…  

Otherwise, we will be a gigantic version of Iran with the nuclear-armed Ayatollah scratching to stay in power.  

What does the Ukrainian war mean for Boris Johnson?

Roger Bara

Many pundits are suggesting that Johnson might benefit from the ongoing tragedy in Europe, in the same manner as one of his predecessors, Margaret Thatcher, who saw her popularity surge following a major conflict.  The Falklands War, back in 1982, saw her fortunes completely converted positively, as Britain threw out the Argentinians after they invaded the South Atlantic British islands.

The British Prime Minister may be in a similar situation, as his “Partygate” disgrace is temporarily forgotten whilst Putin continues to do his worst.  But let’s look at what Johnson is actually achieving, and whether his many previous indiscretions will be forgiven when attention is finally not focused on the carnage in Ukraine.

Whilst, in these blogs, I seldom give the narcissistic Johnson any credit at all, he at least supplied arms to help the Ukrainian resistance. That has no doubt helped the incredibly courageous defenders of their country to the extent that Putin has long since realized his underestimation of the freedom fighters. But bloody Johnson continues to lie to the British people, and even beyond our borders.

Sir Churchill

He promised to take in refugees, and had the gall to say “the U.K. is way in front in our willingness to help.” Nothing could be further from the truth. Compared to the European Union, Britain has been inept, convoluting, without empathy and thoroughly discouraging any would-be refugee from being able to enter our country; people who are being bombed, maimed, killed and facing the biggest humanitarian crisis in Europe since 1940. An absolute disgrace, but so typical of the inhumanity and total incompetence of Johnson and his cronies. 

It makes you wonder about how much Russia has funded the Tory party in recent years. Which is probably why Johnson has been so slow to freeze out the oligarchs who were allowed to make themselves look like respectable human beings in the U.K. I mean, why not give them all the time in the world to hide their assets out of harm’s way?

Of course, Johnson compares himself to Churchill – what a joke. And even if he had half of Churchill’s ability and love for his country, we all know what happened to Winston in the first election after WW2. 

Boris has no chance. Putin will fall, eventually, there’s no doubt about that, but so will Boris. At the very first hurdle. Good riddance. 

The Most Popular Leader in America: Володимир Зеленський

Photograph of Dean Lewis

Two years ago, I wasn’t entirely sure The United States would remain a liberal democracy: Today I am. My nation is in love… with Volodymyr.

Think I exaggerate? Hold my beer… Donald praised Vladimir as smart and his invasion as genius. But that was before Volodymyr said he didn’t need no stinkin’ ride. Even the man’s Zoom calls get standing ovations.

All this puts Trumpists in a tight spot. They are now forced to support democracy… I assume they still don’t want those damn darkies to vote. But this makes for a serious problem: Trumpists are leading the Republican Party from behind. Republicans in Congress are now calling for an even more forceful response to that other Vlad’s war. This has to give Donald heartburn.

So, the most influential man in American politics is holed up in some basement far away. I know, I know, I’m supposed to be writing about how this benefits Sleepy Joe. And it does, but not nearly enough to overcome his sagging poll numbers. 

Tucker Carlson

Joe has done a masterful job of keeping everybody on the same page. But Volodymyr really doesn’t need his help anymore… Volodymyr gets anything he wants, short of starting World War III. No American politician dare stand up to him unless you want to be voted out.

I never saw it coming, Nato is strong, the West is united, even the one-percent are being forced to say morals count. The greedy multi-nationals are closing stores and brands across Russia every day. Gas prices will go up but Americans are happy to pay, because we love Volodymyr. It almost like there is something more important than money. Even Tucker has reversed his support for Vladimir. Holy Crap!

So yes, my country’s leader is not an American. The mighty Red Army should be careful what they wish for; if they succeed and kill Volodymyr, there’s going to be hell to pay. Something else I bet Vladimir doesn’t understand – yet.