America and Xi
Twenty years ago, all Americans were absolutely sure the economy of China would easily surpass the US economy, and soon. It seems natural, the entire population of the US could easily be a single Chinese Provence. They should have the biggest economy.
The CCP has most likely destroyed that idea. The single child policy has decimated the workforce with millions of older folks retiring. The ratio of tax payers to retirees has become toxic to any idea of economic growth in China.
Things get even worse; central planning has created a need for local governments to hit economic targets. The way to achieve that is to build ever more… stuff. I have seen pictures of what I understand to be completely empty cities in China. Selling land and building represents economic growth, but now nobody wants to buy these overpriced apartments.
The upshot of this is that China may not surpass the USA after all. Something I would have never guessed just a couple of years ago. Xi has made matters much worse. China has gone from a kind, pleasant nation popular with almost all Americans to the nation of Wolf-Warrior Diplomacy. China is currently embroiled in territorial conflicts with virtually ALL its neighbors. This is imperialism on a scale not witnessed for well over a century.
I think it’s fair to say the Americans also run an empire. But the type of imperialism we do is economic. We buy things and make deals and it’s voluntary. There may be legitimate discussions about morality but my tribe doesn’t carve-up neighbors. China, under Xi, simply steals all within its gaze. The massive Chinese fishing fleet rolls up inside the exclusive economic zone of nations in South America and absolutely decimates fisheries. I can go on and on but will not.
I will argue that Xi has done real damage to China. I am unaware of any other nation on Earth that has so dramatically transformed from loved to feared. Ten years ago, China was the factory of the world. Many multi-nationals are relocating their manufacturing out of the nation now because of this gut feeling that things may become much worse. India, Brazil, and Vietnam seem to be the beneficiaries of this fall from grace. I understand that in a few years Brazil will become the world’s fifth largest economy.
I get the feeling that most Chinese are oblivious to the changes in how they are perceived. Of course, this is a common disease. Russians and Trumpist Americans are also tone deaf. There are many others, but you get the idea.
I predict Xi’s tenure will end in the same way Putin’s will. That’s bad news for the rest of us.
Xi and Russia
Many Telegram observers in Russia are now making Vlad the laughing stock of the world, who, as they claim, has just received his princely label from Xi during his visit to Moscow.
The great Chinese leader came to buy cheap oil and hug Vlad as a sign of support. Now Russia seems to be in the weakest position ever towards China. The reason is the war in Ukraine that Putin is slowly but surely losing. And Xi knows that. He is not likely to provide any significant military support to Russia, but, as most experts agree, he won’t let the West destroy Putin’s regime.
Why? Russia has just become Xi’s poodle.
The great Chinese leader has recently become, in fact, an emperor as he sets himself free to rule his land for as long as he wants. No one is going to rival him back home. He stepped into Mao’s shoes denying Deng Xioping’s traditions to rotate supreme leaders every ten years. The northern barbarians from Russia are on their knees now, becoming a natural resources supplier to the eternal Middle Kingdom.
However, the biggest challenge is awaiting him on the other side of the ocean. This century promises to become a battlefield between the United States and China, with Russia unwisely siding with the latter. Well, Vlad has no choice now. He probably forgot the Damanski island incident back in 1969 when Mao sent his soldiers to fight the Soviets for an uninhabited piece of land in the Amur river. Back then, the Soviet people were much more afraid of China than the United States. That was the time when an anecdote claiming that ‘everything is under control on the Chinese-Finnish border’ went viral in the USSR, reflecting the fears of China.
Now this joke is becoming a sobering reality for Russia.
Today, Xi is like Putin, but in a much stronger position with China currently being the world’s second economy with the potential to become the first.
God only knows where the Chinese-American future stand-off will lead to. One thing is clear: Xi will make it in the history books as the leader who put down Russia and then openly challenged America to claim world hegemony.
After the war in Ukraine will be over, we’re going to watch the sequel: Dragon vs Eagle. Not so much action by now but plenty of mind games so far.
P.S. You might wish to read a Tom Clancy’s bestseller, The Bear and the Dragon. I enjoyed reading it years ago. China invaded Russia but America came to its rescue. In the real world, Russia would be on the China side in this future battle.
Britain and Xi
I have always maintained a soft spot for the Chinese people – hard working, honest, trusting to a fault, and, outwardly as least, appearing happy and contented with their lot.
I have, on the other hand, never failed to utterly despise the ruling elite, who have treated their people, and the rest of the world come to that, with disdain and total disrespect.
Just a few years ago, the then British Prime Minister David Cameron attempted to start a “golden era” of co-operation following a state visit to the U.K. by Xi Junping. By the time the ill-fated premiership of Liz Truss came to pass, Britain’s hostility to China was intensified from “systemic competitor” to “threat”.
I think our present government recognises that Beijing sees itself in an existential struggle with western capitalism. Certainly, our intelligence community has emphasised concern that an authoritarian China could well take control of critical technologies, such as AI, and a handful of takeovers of British firms by Chinese companies have been blocked using the newly passed National Security and Investment Act.
In addition, hundreds of Chinese researchers have been turned away from various British projects over the last couple of years. Trust is certainly being eroded.
This is exactly what happens when you get a powerful nation wanting to completely reshape the post-1945 world order. We know that Xi expects the world’s professed concern for rules and human rights to decline, and I only hope that my country, along with the majority of the rest of the world, sees to it that potential war-mongerers are put in their place and kept there.
As a final thought, barely 10 per cent of the British people have anything approaching a positive view of China; we are pretty much pissed off about the human rights abuses of Uyghur Muslims and pissed off at the huge downgrading of democracy in Hong Kong.
And most of us feel that China was responsible for the spread of Covid, so what is there to appreciate or value Xi and his cronies?