Jail Cell & Presidential Seal

I bet he will not!

Our Rusuk Blog writer Sergey

The idea for this blog was born out of Roger and Dean’s initial debate. They argued if Donald Trump would finally land in a real jail with cells and bars – or not. The bet is $20. The funny thing is my RUSUK co-writers seem not to like Donald. And I do. Still, they appear to have opposite opinions on the jail issue.

So, I am joining the pack, put down my $20, and I think he won’t get into prison.

I may not know all the details of numerous accusations against Donald Trump. What I know is that he probably has the strongest team of lawyers. These guys are true legal eagles, whether you like it or not.

Donald Trump Happy

Donald Trump will fly in this regard. Why? He is a smart guy, though a bit extravagant, let’s put it this way. These qualities make his brand: a wacko millionaire, a mix of a tough guy and a sleazy person. So, he must have a very well-thought-out strategy to escape actual imprisonment.

This is why I believe that the worst thing that can happen to Donald is that, under some legal reasons, he won’t be allowed to run for president. I think that getting him actually into jail is a task too challenging for those who try to upset him.

I also think being disallowed to join the presidential race would be worse than any prison for a person who is burning alive to be in the spotlight and rule the world. This will kill him faster than any jail.

P.S. The winner takes it all.

Will Trump go to jail?

Photograph of Dean Lewis

I say yes, he will go to jail. Donald Trump will actually put himself in jail. Let me explain; Any Judge will be loath to simply throw him in a cell and every effort will be made to accommodate him. That will not last long at all. 

Maybe I should back-up and explain myself here. I doubt these charges would have ever been filed unless the prosecutors are sure they have a solid case. I would think a loss here would mean losing your job and facing a Republican led federal investigation. You’re betting your future and your mortgage on winning this case.

So, we have 91 felony counts in four venues and it’s a safe bet that the prosecutors feel good about every last one. But let’s say things don’t go according to plan. In fact, we will argue they can only get half (I seem to recall the actual average is closer to 90%). That’s 45 guilty verdicts. OK… who cares, let’s even cut that in half; it’s a complete failure, that’s still 23 guilty verdicts.

The Donald

Fine. We will round things in Trump’s favor again and say that these felonies are no big deal and he only gets five years for each one. Hello? That’s 115 years. OK, so 77 years old, plus 115 years… 

You can see how the math is going to work: Donald Trump will die in Court custody no matter what. Because some are State and some are Federal charges, there will be no clemency. 

But that’s not the bet. Will Donald Trump see the inside of a real jail cell? I say yes. Oh, not at first. Judges in the case will make noises about the Office and all kinds of high-minded rubbish. The truth is people are going to die if this guy is treated like the rest of us. The judges surely understand they may well be the first to be murdered. 

So I think Trump will most likely be placed under house arrest. He will have to stay in his private apartment at Mar-a-Lago. No shouting from the windows or lies on Truth about how he’s a victim and the system is rigged against him. Poor guy. He’ll be forced to sit on his gold toilet and have lobster for lunch and Big Macs for dinner. Prison is hell.

But that will not do at all; I believe Trump must have attention. He will go out for a round of golf and crash a wedding. He will violate his terms right away and this will put the judge in a tough position. I believe Donald Trump will give the judge no choice and force the matter. He will end up in a real jail cell claiming he’s a political prisoner. That’s my bet.

Will Trump go to jail?

Roger Bara

Whatever decent trait a human being can possess is totally absent as far as Donald Trump is concerned. I can’t think of one mitigating factor. It’s like you asked AI to invent the most horrible person possible, and hey, here he is, a former President of the U.S.A.

Without knowing all the salient facts, I am still sure that he is guilty of whatever charges are held against him, and probably guilty of shedloads more. Between his 91 felony counts, Mr Trump faces a total of roughly seven centuries in total jail time, spread between dozens of charges of differing seriousness. But will he end up in a cell? 

I am so sure Trump will remain a free man that I have bet my American buddy and co-writer Dean the huge sum of $20 to that effect; Dean has been saying for years that Trump will be put away at some stage.

Donald Trump

Even if Trump is convicted, most courts would allow him to remain free pending appeals on the weighty constitutional and evidentiary issues raised by the Georgia case in particular. That process could easily take a number of years. Trump will probably die, (hopefully soon), long before he finally gets his sentence.

In the end, I don’t think it matters if he is convicted. The question is whether jailing a former president is even feasible. If he wins next year’s election, which is perfectly possible given the stupidity and wilful ignorance of a large number of voters, an entirely new layer of complexity is added to the mix. Think of the riots that will follow his incarceration.  Another civil war is on the cards.

American democracy, what’s left of it, is being pushed far into the bounds of the unknown and the unprecedented. The country is making the rules up as it goes along. And if there’s one rule still to be decided, it’s the one that says Trump will not go to jail.