COP 28, Dubai

COP 28 and the Big Business

Our Rusuk Blog writer Sergey

According to The Guardian, the COP28 summit made a deal to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels. The ‘landmark deal’ was reportedly agreed by almost 200 countries. I saw a picture of around 100 men and women standing on the grand stage of the Conference. 

The Conference’s outcome led to accepting a ‘robust plan,’ a ‘historic package of measures’ and ‘redefining the world economy.’

What can I say about it? I am still a climate change skeptic. 

The temperatures have steadily increased since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), persisting for the past 20,000 years. The fluctuations in ice ages are not attributed to human activities but have cosmic origins, recurring since time immemorial.

Gears Graphic

Think of the Younger Dryas cataclysmic event that happened around 12,000 years ago. It was triggered by the Taurid comet shower impacting Earth; there’s now lots of geological evidence. This is science, unlike the idea that the climate change was caused by human activity. Scientific data indicates that the carbon dioxide pollution attributable to human actions constitutes merely 8% of the total volume on Earth, with the remaining majority being of natural origin. Human influence could probably be a decisive factor, but there’s still a big question mark. 

That cosmic impact caused a sudden temperature drop, ushering in a new brief ice age that endured for around two thousand years. This disastrous climate change had no connection to the human race; it led to megafauna completely vanishing from Earth at that time. 

Gears Graphic

Then the climate got back to its pre-Younger Dryas conditions, without any assistance of carbon-producing factories back in the New Stone Age times!

Did you ever hear of the Little Ice Age in Europe between the 13th and 17th centuries, a period devoid of industrialization? Yet, temperatures rebounded to current levels without the aid of human-driven factors. The pre-industrial warming was a result of natural cycles not entirely comprehended by climatologists to this day. 

How about it? No factories, no smocking chimneys, no oil. Still, the human race experienced another GLOBAL WARMING back in the 17th century! 

I suspect that decreasing carbon footprint is somehow connected with the deindustrialization of the developed world, moving the industries to China and other Third World countries to maximize profits for Big Business/globalists. 

This smells of money not care about climate change. 

While I acknowledge that human activities contribute to warming to some degree, it is crucial to recognize that the global climate is a highly intricate system influenced by numerous factors beyond human influence.

So COP28 is more like a business meeting using climate change as a curtain to hide some shady long-term business goals globally. 

COP 28 – where are we now with Climate Change?

Photograph of Dean Lewis

It’s like kids on the playground, except people get smashed. The planet’s oil production is really controlled by three countries and they don’t much like each other. Here are the top three:

  1. United States
  2. Saudi Arabia 
  3. Russia

Together these three set the tone and have enough influence to control the general direction of oil prices but they can’t actually call the shots unless they all coordinate closely. The problem is they haven’t been on the same page for the past couple of years.

COP 28, or any other oil related thing you can name, cannot achieve anything without the support of all three. Unfortunately for the UN and planet Earth, the Saudis hate, and I mean hate, even the thought of a world that doesn’t run on oil. They successfully blocked any strong language on oil targets. 

Let’s look at these countries in order:

The United Sates: The Americans are the oddballs here; they produce the most oil but don’t really export much (they sent a lot of gas to Europe last year). The discovery of the shale process led to a change in how the Americans see the Middle East. The ONLY reason the US is involved in that never-ending food fight is because they do care about the European economy. The US wants to lower international prices. 

Here’s an example: Venezuela and Guyana are arguing about who gets to control an off-shore oil patch. The Americans are holding joint military exercises with Guyana to remind Venezuela to think carefully before any invasion. Nobody in America gives a damn but it will matter a great deal to Europe and will end any talk of war in Venezuela. 

Gas Pump

Saudi Arabia: Long time the world’s undisputed oil exporting champ, the Saudi’s have a real problem: They will run out of oil. Under the poor leadership of Mohammed bin Salman, there is every likelihood the Kingdom will become a debtor nation (these are links). The downward spiral has already started and the Americans will not shed a tear.

The Russian Federation: This Petrostate has remade itself into the swaggering bad-boy of international relations over the past two years. While most Russians seem not to realize it, Russian oil exports are about to hit a brick wall, hard. The RU simply doesn’t have the oil experts to keep its own fields operational. Yeah, that sounds bizarre to me too but apparently, it’s true. So, what is happening is that some fields built on permafrost are temporarily shut because of the war and the oil & gas are freezing in the equipment. It’s not a matter of it all just warming up and starting again. Stuff is damaged and it will require serious expertise to get complex equipment running. Russia doesn’t really have that capability now that the Western oil giants have left. China can’t help because it doesn’t get that cold there.

So, COP 28 was a failure in that it didn’t set hard, enforceable goals. But there is an excellent chance that it will not matter; the two biggest exporters are both in deep poo-poo and number four is Canada (they like to export to their friends in the South). Number five is China… this doesn’t bode well for OPEC. In other words, we will have a green future; just not for the reasons folk think.

COP28 – Where are we now with climate change?

Roger Bara

Nowhere near far enough, full of weak language, but maybe a minuscule light at the end of a titanic tunnel.

Plus points? 

Almost 200 countries have agreed to move away from fossil fuels, the first time fossil fuels have been explicitly mentioned. (But not for plastics, transport or agriculture.) Er…….that’s about it.

Minus points? 

It stops short of calling for a complete phase-out, which as every first-year science student knows, is essential to keep our planet in survival mode.

Tiny island nations, who are most at risk, remain completely unprotected.

The “agreement” doesn’t require richer countries, like the U.K., to provide financial support, or to lead on it when they’ve economically benefitted from fossil fuels for longer.

Oil Wells

So rather pathetic all round. Just like the U.K.’s climate minister Graham Stuart, who loudly proclaimed: “We need to ensure that we translate it into action and we keep up momentum.” This from a government who, very recently, issued new licences for oil and gas drilling in the North Sea! You just couldn’t make this up.

There’s no urgency, with too many nations having self-interests that conflict with the science. What a bunch of useless morons. I won’t be around to see our planet become uninhabitable, but my grandson and daughters could well be put through this hell on earth. 

I despair.