Politically, the Tories will be lying, cheating and partying their way towards a record number of years of consecutive election wins. The increasingly thick British public still think these bunch of charlatans are a better prospect than a labour party whose chances of grasping power wanes with each passing year. Maybe, just maybe, a new centrist party will evolve out of the mayhem, but it will probably take a lot longer than 10 years.
Economically, Brexshit has ensured that from being in the top echelons of industrial and manufacturing power, Britain is now lagging well behind, with nobody to blame but themselves. The top bods that used to oversee successful commerce have long since deserted the sinking ship, and departed what remains of Britain.
If the U.K. hasn’t split up, the Scottish first, but fought all the way by Northern Ireland, then it soon will be.
Whilst civil war may not have broken out yet, the hate, the vitriol and the narcissistic atmosphere in the country is already resembling the U.S.A. of 2022. I see riots regularly occurring as energy costs approach 50 per cent of an average family’s entire income.
In sport, England’s football team (men) still fails to win anything.
Over the next decade, my country will see further manufacturing decline, a national debt completely out of control, the National Health Service disintegrating through lack of investment, and a massive elderly population, already enjoying the lowest state pensions in Europe, seeing the value of those pensions eroding even more.
I have never wanted to be more wrong in my entire life.
My country in 10 years
I am very optimistic about my country, Russia, in 10 years. I am 47 now, and I hope to make it to my 57th and continue living through it. To see a country reborn, just like in 1991.
Alexey Navalny, who, as I hope, has fantastic chances to be a Russian President (not the next one after the current creature, though), once made a brilliant statement about what our country is going to be in the future:
In Russian it sounds like Прекрасная Россия будущего.
In English, I’d put it like ‘Beautiful Russia of tomorrow’.
Sounds very… sunshiny.
Yes, to go through this transformation, a sequel of the great 1991 democratic revolution must happen, as Russia is going to experience a military defeat in Ukraine.
The war is horrible, but, cynically, it increased the chances of Putin being removed from power. Without it, he would have been a dictator till his physical death, dragging the country back to the Dark Ages.
Now everything has changed. Today many people here feel frustrated and hopeless, but it is just desperation because we lost belief in ourselves.
I am not even sure that he will make it through 2024 when the next presidential ‘election’ in Russia is going to happen. Probably, some temporary, transitional figure would be installed to power.
We, as a country, will have to come through the after-war turbulence. I see Putin’s imminent debacle somewhere in 2023 in Ukraine, like most experts I follow. He’s made several crucial, point-of-no-return mistakes, and he will follow the path of numerous dictators whose names are very well known. Unfortunately, the cost of his mistakes is thousands of victims of the Ukraine war. The wisest thing I can tell about that is that this is how History works…
In 10 years we will be already back on track that we’ve chosen in 1991, and lost this way somewhere in 2003.
I see Russia as a free country; free from the swamp of ill-fated imperialism and archaism that led us to a national catastrophe.
I see us defying the gloomy heritage of thinking that neighboring countries are our property.
I see us taking our lives back.
Every person will be deciding freely for himself or herself who and what to be. No bloody master of puppets anymore.
I understand, that after the war we will have to pay a price to get there.
But, Ukraine now pays much more for its freedom. And they are ready to do it.
I am sure, Russia will pay different coins, a different currency, but still this would be the cost for a better future for generations to come.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Fascism!
Ten years is a long time and things happen. In my opinion, the US will end up in one of two places: populism or a wounded democracy. A lot of what happens to America next is dependent on what happens to Donald Trump. Here is a man who has spent his entire life never answering for anything, anywhere.
That may be about to change. And I will argue it will be very bad news indeed for the planet if it doesn’t change. Brazil is an example of a nation enthralled with Trumpism. Wannabe dictators around the world copy Trump’s language and example: rigged elections, fake news, political witch-hunt, and election integrity are now common language, in many languages.
I don’t think there is any in between for the US, it’s populism or democracy. Oh, of course we will not phrase it that way. It will be all honey sweet and the very people killing the Republic will wrap themselves in the flag. Yes, I really believe the stakes are that high: the death of the Republic.
Let me explain; here’s the first line of the definition of Fascism from Wikipedia: “Fascism is a far-right, authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement, characterized by a dictatorial leader”. OK, then what is Populism? As far as I can tell, the two ideologies differ in degrees, not substance or goals. I’ll argue that those few differences would slowly disappear if Trump remains in control of the Republican Party for an extended period.
Having painted this dark picture, the way for Trump is not clear and the hurdles are many. He may well end up in the custody of the courts. I don’t know if that would be a cell or something like home confinement. This is not to say that the world-wide movement would die the next day, of course not. But the loss of the spiritual leader would be a major blow.
The January 6th hearings have clearly hurt the movement. Lots of name-calling and convenient memory loss can’t change basic facts. When Trump was elected, The Washington Post changed it’s masthead to black and adopted the motto: Democracy Dies in Darkness. There are now multiple law enforcement agencies looking in some very dark places. The American public has started to shift in opinion. “Threats to Democracy” is currently polling as the number one issue in voter’s minds.
I predict that if these investigators allow Trump to get off, again, the US is finished in its present form. Ten years from now Trump would still be in office (example: Putin or Xi) and the left would simply not be allowed to vote. There are already efforts in that direction.
The other alternative is that two or three of these investigations end up in convictions. In that case, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will be in control of the Republican party. He has Trump’s penchant for going after perceived foes but in general he seems to stay between the legal lines. He would also certainly be timid in the face of the huge backlash that befell Trump. This would be the best case we can reasonably hope for if you like democracy.