Worst-case scenario: Russia 2024
As my country fights the war she started, my worst-case scenario would be its escalation to some point of no return.
Unlike what propaganda says, things are not going well. For example, Putin went to North Korea to ask for ammunition and, some say, even engineering troops. What a shame! The so-called ‘the world’s second army’ is begging for help from a world pariah.
Well, Russia is also a pariah, at least, among the countries I consider ‘normal.’
I think the worst thing can be something like a nuclear escalation. Yes, military experts say that Putin is bluffing, and tactical nukes are only needed for tank armies to break through the frontlines. Then, those tank armies would flood in to finally destroy the Ukrainian military.
The thing is, unlike the Soviet army, the contemporary Russian army doesn’t have all these tanks, and its military doctrine is different.
So, the only option in this case would be Putin’s desperation—his move to frighten the world and show his determination.
I don’t think Ukraine would surrender in this case.
I don’t think the West would bow down to Putin.
Things may escalate.
This is my worst-case for Russia in 2024 and the whole world.
2024 – Britain’s worst-case scenario
Let me introduce you to someone, if you’re not British, of whom you may not have heard. Not surprising really, given that Nigel Farage is an election failure, in that he has botched all previous attempts to be selected as an MP at Westminster. This Trump and Putin admirer is a despicable, flawed character, but his influence in British politics is growing.
You have to understand that Britain has just endured 14 years of the worst Conservative government in memory. The major opposition party, Labour, will win next week’s General Election by a landslide, but they are short on most of the essentials needed to successfully run a country. Like strong leadership, fiscal competence, and well-reasoned policy ideas.
The alternative, it seems, is the Reform UK party, a hastily-rising outfit, headed by Farage. A populist, who thrives on short-termism because he focuses on his followers’ immediate grievances. Not a hint at worrying about long-term risks; in fact, like Trump, he doesn’t really care about anyone or anything but himself.
He is hoping to win the seat of Clacton, and may well be a poll-topper at the eighth attempt. His party will only be successful in a handful of constituencies, but that’s not the point. Any increase in Reform UK’s popularity poses an increasing threat to my country.
This the guy who played a huge role in getting the U.K. out of Europe, the worst post-war decision made by any government. He uses xenophobic or racist language, promoting huge divisions in society, appealing to emotions rather than reason. He seems to enjoy being seen as insensitive and offensive by his detractors.
His latest beauty is agreeing with Putin that it’s NATO to blame for the war in Ukraine. Say it enough times, and the plebs that follow him will start believing it. Telling him that Putin was provoked not by NATO, but by Ukrainian independence, is pointless. It doesn’t suit his agenda.
Bearing in mind that Britain’s future Labour government will likely be as useless as the last lot that were in power, Farage and his party may well increase their approval ratings. If he wins, you can just image where this may lead. Just look at what’s occurring on the other side of the Atlantic.
2024 – America’s Worst-Case Scenario….
When you think about it, there are many, many things that could go wrong in 2024. In fact, there are so many dark clouds on the horizon we will be lucky if awful things don’t come to pass. It’s just statistics, with so many bad things that could happen, something is likely to blow up on us.
In the US the obvious one is Trump. He wants some semi-dystopian world with him running the show. Those who speak out against him will go to jail. He’s been quite open about how things should proceed. I’m writing these words only hours before the first Presidential debate. Trump is a poor debater and speaker. When his teleprompter dies, he begins to blather and tell strange stories. I really don’t think he can win. In fact, he has never won the popular vote in any race; not even once. This will be no different, so I’ll dismiss this as my choice.
Imperialism seems to have become a popular pastime around the world. China, Russia, and Israel, among others, seem to think it good to simply steal what doesn’t belong to you. In each case these nations are destroying the prior, rules-based order that was put in place after World War Two. In each case they believe they should be the exception for historical reasons. They each believe they have a rightful claim on what they covet.
Here’s my choice for the worst thing to happen to America: The Donald’s pal, Bibi (PM of Israel) wants to stay out of jail. As long as he can stay in office, he will not see the inside of a Courtroom. No trial means no jail. So, surprise, surprise, he has destroyed Gaza and has not achieved even one of his stated goals; not one. But he’s still in office so bring some more blood! Yeah!
While I have always thought Israel may not be quite guilty of actual genocide, they are certainly guilty of running an Apartheid system in their illegally occupied areas. Under the poor leadership of their current Prime Minister, they are busy radicalizing a whole new generation of young Palestinians. The Israeli public tells themselves they are innocent victims while building more settlements. They are imperialists practicing apartheid. That, by the way, is in fact a crime against humanity under international law.
Next, Netanyahu must, and I mean must, start a war with Hezbollah. He’s fallen into the same trap that’s ensnared Putin: He needs continuous war to remain in power. The difference is, he wants to drag America and Germany into his little shit show. China rightly points to the hypocrisy of this support. In short, Benjamin Netanyahu is destroying much of the world order Xi and Putin could not. In the end, finally, these two (US & DE) larger nations will end their military support for the butchering but not before doing irreparable damage to their own images.
I’ll close with this: Netanyahu will turn Israel into a rogue state.