In 2018, the UK took part in the missile strikes against Syria alongside the United States and France. In March 2021, the British Government placed sanctions on key allies of Assad. On December 8th 2024, British prime minister Keir Starmer and foreign secretary David Lammy both welcomed the fall of the al-Assad regime.
Since then, UK has committed £50 million of humanitarian aid to support the Syrian people in their hour of need as part of efforts to build long-term security and stability across the Middle East. However, in Syria itself, there are over 16 million people in need of humanitarian assistance; the situation in many parts of the country is absolutely dire. And we must not forget that there are large numbers of Syrian refugees in neighbouring countries.
But what next? Humanitarian help is all very well, but the country’s new powerbrokers are hardly men of peace. As we know, Syria is a montage of peoples and faiths that have never lived side by side in a stable democracy. The dominant faction in the recent advance, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, was, in its former life, an affiliate of al-Qaeda. So sadly, I share with many others a fatalistic belief that Syria is doomed to collapse into civil war once again. When that happens of course, it will export refugees, jihadists and gross instability beyond the Middle East.
Let me be not too despondent here; at least we can rejoice that the Assads’ stunning defeat is a repudiation of Iran and Russia, two participants of global chaos. I will long feel the incredible jubilation I saw in Syria this week. Maybe a nation thoroughly exhausted by war could yet choose what will be a long and winding road towards some kind of peace.
Overall, I am pessimistic, but right now, I can at least celebrate and applaud the demise of an utter tyrant. Russia is welcome to the bastard.
Syria: What’s Next?
Bashar Assad’s regime fell, surprising many external observers. The discussion is underway: Was it Erdogan’s brilliant strategy, or was the Damascus regime so weak?
Anyway, in this round, Russia lost, and Turkey won. As somebody put it: Sultans vs Tzars, 1:0. Turkey is happily considering reviving the gas pipeline project from Qatar via the Syrian territory. Turkey could be less dependent on Russian gas if it can make it.
Another thing is the two Russian military bases, a naval one in Tartuss and an air force one in Khmeimim. The new authorities, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), are not making any sharp moves. They will negotiate the bases with Moscow without trying to repeat the Saigon Moment when the United States had to evacuate their embassy using helicopters in 1975. Maybe Russia will escape its Saigon Moment, though I am not sure. Anyway, its previous military presence is over, and Putin lost the war he has claimed several times he won.
What’s more important is that the HTS’s leader, Abu Mohamed al-Jolani, has even taken his previous, real name, Ahmed Hussein al-Shraa, showcasing his more moderate intentions as a leader of the whole country, not just the HTS’s emir. He is now talking about a united and secular Syria with no visible plans to oppress his enemies. He seeks a pragmatic relationship with the outside world, including the West and Russia. Well, the Taliban was also very moderate on paper in 2021 when America left the country, but they took off their peaceful masks very soon after.
The new Syria authorities will probably be more realistic and pragmatic as they seem to get something useful from each foreign power, from the United States to Turkey to Russia.
In this case, a new Syria could be a more tolerant and secular regime. And yes, Iran seems to be the biggest loser, thanks to Israel’s efforts in destroying HAMAS and Hizballah. Their Shiite arc is broken, which is good news for the world.
I even think of a regime change there, as it is very fragile and unpopular.
Then, if Donald Trump can wisely handle Putin, the axis of evil would be weakened even more, with Putin not getting what he wants in Ukraine.
For the first time since February 24, 2022, I think that better days are coming, and dictatorships all over the world may retreat.
Syria: what’s next?
Now I didn’t see that coming and I sure didn’t see the effects it would have on several countries. Even my hindsight seems suspect. I still can’t quite figure out how this is such bad news for Iran but apparently, it’s a disaster.
From my country’s prospective, this is pretty easy. Donald Trump was wise enough not to say he would solve it on his first day. Only an idiot really thinks Trump will solve Ukraine, immigration, and the entire US economy on his first afternoon in office. Turns out there are millions and millions of idiots running around in America who think everything can be sorted out in just a couple of hours. In fact, Trump said Syria isn’t the US’s problem.
The entire Middle East hasn’t been America’s problem for decades but every last President, from both parties, seems to be dragged back into the cesspool. The US has been energy independent for years. The reason why the Americans are back this time is so that Europe has gas this winter and, of course, to keep a lid on ISIS.
As for what’s next for Syria, my guess is more war. Let’s take the positive outlook and say that HTS does an excellent job and shares power with all parties. There will still be war. Türkiye has wanted to eliminate the Kurdish government in North-West for years but couldn’t because the US wanted the Kurds to fight ISIS. That was stable and worked, mostly.
But now Türkiye has come out the big winner in this contest and will have real influence over what happens next. Of course, Türkiye will want to use this new power to eliminate the Kurds, if not literally, at least politically. That means there must be more killing. Once things start to unravel, I can imagine other outside powers wanting to step in and try to salvage their old positions. None of this would be good for Syria.