How might 2026 pan out for the U.K.?
As we approach the new year, the U.K. stands at a crossroads of economic pressure, shifting global roles and particularly political realignment.
We have an acutely dysfunctional government, with several ministers simply not able enough to carry out their duties satisfactorily, and a particularly weak Prime Minister. The main opposition party is reeling from public loathing at its handling of Covid and many other instances of corrupt politics.
So, the upcoming local elections in May 2026 will, I forecast, have the potential to reshape the UK’s party landscape, with rising support for newer or smaller parties challenging the traditional dominance of Labour and the Conservatives. (Remember, you read it here first!) Regional tensions — especially in Scotland and Wales — highlight deepening political fragmentation.
Economically, I see little change. Most forecasts suggest the U.K.’s GDP will expand slowly — around 1.0 % or slightly below — as weak household spending, cautious business investment, and global trade uncertainty dampen momentum. High borrowing costs, fiscal tightening, and persistent inflation above target all make a huge dent in consumer confidence.
The labour market is cooling, with unemployment creeping higher and private-sector vacancies falling in several industries. Real wages are under pressure too, and many households are expected to keep spending tight if real incomes stagnate.
On the international stage, the UK is recalibrating its global priorities. Defence exports and security cooperation are expanding, reflecting concerns about European stability and Russian threats. At the same time, domestic policy choices — including cuts to overseas aid — risk diminishing Britain’s international influence.
Societal trends are also evolving. Debates around reparations and historical accountability will gain traction, putting questions of colonial legacy and equity into the public eyes and ears. The subject of reparations, which has long been treated as a fringe issue in Europe, has caught fire elsewhere. The U.K. government, meanwhile, blithely bats the issues away. It’s the gap between the two sides that will be the story in 2026.
How might 2026 pan out for Russia?
It is definitely going to be a big change. Vladimir Putin has a dilemma; he can either stop his ‘Special military operation’ at the compromised conditions, or continue fighting, facing potential economic and military risks.
When I say risks, I mean risks for him personally, not for the country. He doesn’t care about Russia, in my opinion, he only cares for his power. The Caddahfi’s faith is not an option for him. Some say here that Vlad was very impressed by the way Libya’s strongman died.
I might be wrong but I think we are going to see some kind of a peace deal around January-February 2026.
This will lead to Ukraine’s tactical loss in this conflict – and to Putin’s strategic defeat, as by the very fact of negotiating with Trump he admits he can’t achieve his initial goals, so called Ukraine’s ‘denazification’ and ‘demilitarization’.
He can’t make the regime change in Kiev, and he also can’t destroy the Ukrainian military. This is what I call a strategic defeat.
Yes, he might get chunks of Donbass and will sell it to Russian people as victory. I am astonished to see that most of my compatriots simply don’t remember Putin’s initial strategic goals that I mentioned above. The only thing he talks now is Donbass as his ultimate goal. Sorry, Vlad, you have changed your own agenda!
So, I expect striking some peace deal and this would be the biggest thing for Russia in 2026.
I also don’t expect any political liberalization. Putin will continue to suppress freedoms. Recently they banned WhatsApp which is now only available via VPN. This is a classic way for a dictator.
A glimpse of hope?
Russian business community recently sent an official letter to Putin, mentioning dangers of lawless nationalization which is underway. There are other signs. Most Russians, according to a recent state poll, want a peace deal now.
Such tiny things create, one by one, a pressure for Vlad to stop fighting as, I believe, he is starting to believe that a military victory in Ukraine is impossible.
The only thing he wants to avoid is answering the question: Hey buddy, why did you start it all back in February 2022?
How might 2026 pan out for the U.S.A.?
I’ve gone back and looked at my 2025 predictions and on reflection, I seem to get things mostly right but then I take it to extremes. Example: I said Hungry would be in big financial trouble. That came true but nowhere near the extreme I predicted. I said Tesla sales would fall; that did happen but again, not close to my dire predictions.
With this in mind, I’ll try to tone it down this time.
- Venezuela: This will be something of an acid test for Trump and I don’t see a happy ending; for anyone.
- The US Navy pulls back. Wall Street and the Libtards already call the man TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). If he backs down the planet will know he’s all bark and will start to ignore most of the bluster.
- The US Navy attacks: The Navy and its infantry (The US Marines) would have little problem dealing with Venezuela. This poses big domestic political problems for Trump: He will be accused of only doing it to steal oil and his base is serious about no more stupid, pointless wars.
- No matter which option, Trump will have trouble spinning this as some sort of win. My suggestion would be to declare victory over Fentanyl and chest thump while getting out. However, my prediction is that Trump will run his mouth and paint himself into a corner. OK, that’s not much of a prediction but you know it’s true. Fox has made it clear they would like war. Trump’s MEGA base has made it clear they don’t. He will try to cut the difference and blow up a couple of places then go home. Not America First but not war either.
- Epstein: This is a serious, self-inflected wound and it’s getting worse. Even at this late date, there’s no actual proof that the man has broken any laws. But he cannot help himself, he keeps running his mouth and making things worse. For someone who’s “completely, totally innocent” he acts guilty as hell.
- My Prediction: For some stupid unknown reason, Trump will drag this out until after the Mid-Terms. It’s probably already too late. Then, he will no longer control Congress or his mouth. Two outcomes:
- He’s somehow able to cover up any crimes and gets away with feeding Pam Bondi to the wolves (Democrats). “She wasn’t transparent.”
- He continues to alienate friend and foe alike and gets impeached, again. This time his protector, Mitch McConnell, will not be there to shield him and the Senate throws him out of office. This will drag into 2027 so it’s not quite a 2026 prediction.
You’ll notice my predictions are exclusively about Trump. That’s because there will be no other topics of conversation in this country while he breathes and walks this Earth. The ashes he leaves behind will never fully dissolve. America is no longer respected by our former friends. Our word is worthless and our darkness exposed. A few years from now, China will become the world’s superpower and Trump’s final gift will be American bodies bloating on the beaches of Taiwan — alone.