Hell, no!
Since the division of the British Raj, the Kashmir dilemma, with the state’s mostly-Muslim population, (more than 60%, according to a BBC report), has been a source of tensions – and wars – between India and Pakistan.
In October 1947, the local Maharaja, Hari Singh, initially wanted Kashmir to become independent. However, he chose to join India, in return for its help against an invasion of tribesmen from Pakistan.
Since then, these two big countries have been arguing about the land. To me, it is BS, but, looking at Putin’s mania about Eastern Ukraine’s ‘historical Russian lands,’ I think this fire will last for a long time.
Now, they have mutual fire exchanges, like Indian missile strikes and Pakistani shelling. Also, a drone war, which has become a new chapter in the military theory and practice since the Russian-Ukrainian war.
However, judging by the Indian press-release after the initial strikes, India doesn’t want to escalate. I think, Pakistan also wants to retaliate, but in a very limited way. Both countries seem to want to avoid a bigger conflict, not even mentioning a nuclear escalation.
I could go on and write more on the issue, but my forecast was laid out at the top of the text: there will be no World War 3. Another border clash, much noise, and that’s all.
India v Pakistan: WW3??
One of the most lucrative sports franchises in the world is cricket’s IPL, the Indian Premer League, with its value reaching 12 billion US dollars just last year. Today, safety concerns have resulted in a suspension of all activities.
The Pakistan Super Cricket League, also worth billions in revenue, has also been suspended because of the rising tensions between the two nations. Apart from hating their neighbour, cricket is by far the most important part of life in these two nations. So, the thought of escalating violence is big-time serious.
The U.K. government will admit to having close and “unique” relationships with both countries. Ultimately, they will sit on the fence rather than take sides, although Prime Minister Keith Starmer revealed a new trade agreement this week between Britain and India worth billions to both sides.
However, more worryingly, escalating tensions between the two nuclear-armed rivals could trigger clashes on British streets, despite community leaders calling for calm. Britain has many areas with large Pakistani, Indian and Kashmiri communities.
Before we can talk about another world war, which could happen when opposing military strengths start taking sides, I think it’s worth reflecting that these two nations have habitually hated each other since 1947. There have been four full-scale conflicts between India and Pakistan; 1947, 1965, 1971, and 1999. Just add 2025 to that list. For now.
The biggest problem I see is that an escalation of violence will have little economic cost to either nation, as there is practically no trade between them. Which means the main concern for both sides now is the political cost they will suffer from not taking military action. Who knows what then may transpire?
India v Pakistan: WW3?
A great deal of marching about and shouting is made concerning Britain’s rule over India until 1947. I think at least a portion of the heat & smoke is to keep a domestic audience from looking too close to home. India and Pakistan are both nations crippled by poverty. India especially should be on the path to economic global domination; yet it wallows in manufactured hate courtesy of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
It’s the same playbook Trump uses; if it looks like people are starting to notice important issues, do or say something so outrageous everybody forgets what they were talking about. In Modi’s case it’s bulldozing a few Muslim homes and businesses to enrage everybody. Build the Ram Temple on the site of a mosque your followers destroyed. Talk smack on them damn Muslim terrorists, the Pakistanis. Feed on people’s fears, stoke racists hate and they will forget about that decrepit British rail system or the farmer’s protest.
Pakistan’s foreign intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, is even worse. They operate mostly outside the government’s control and view terrorism as perfectly normal. When the Americans killed Osama bin Laden, it was no coincidence he lived across the street from an Intelligence base. Inter-Services Intelligence may well have been aware that Pakistani terrorists were about to strike India.
This is a long way to get to two points:
- There are no good guys here… no angel’s wings will be issued when this is over.
- Both sides will profit politically from any conflict.
The rest of the planet could go “whatever” and let them have at it. Except for one little problem: they are both nuclear powers. Most of the dead would be innocent civilians and countries across Asia would see spikes in cancer for years. Uncool.
Personally, I doubt the actual attacks on tourists will result in war. However, there is one more factor in this that may well result in a nuclear exchange: water. Water is scarce at this high elevation and India controls it. Here’s an article if you want to know the details. The TLDR is there’s a treaty that has been in effect for decades, through war and peace and Modi just said it was void.
Turns out people are fond of drinking and having lights (hydro-power) so taking these things away from Pakistan would be considered rude. A quarter of Pakistan’s economy is through agriculture so cutting off the water would be considered an act of war. The Pakistani Government has already said so. At the same time, cutting off water to the bad guys would be a political win for an Indian leader cultivating a tough-guy image. Forget the terrorists, here’s your war.